October Surprise = Taqiya?

Bloggers, columnists, and pundits can all take their best guess as to what surprise the Republicans will unveil on the Friday before the election. 

After spending an afternoon in the Santa Monica Public Library and talking to an official of the Arab American Veterans Association, inspired by a passage in a biography of Sir Richard Francis Burton (written by Edward Rice), the time has come to take a turn at guessing what that last minute attempt at a “walk-off grand slam” will be.  Of course we can’t just blurt it out, we have to make sure that our prediction comes after the jump and then people can either agree or disagree, but they all should realize the nefarious reasoning behind this bit of longwinded preparations, which will insure that the “big reveal” comes after folks click to (as Paul Havery would say) the rest of the story.

Should a columnist take a wild guess that might, instead, inspire some Republican strategist or should he stay mum?  Well, if the columnist does guess correctly, that gives the Obama camp (if they read the prediction) a chance to start their refutation efforts even before the October surprise is uncorked on the very last weekend of the campaign.

During the campaign the two factions have tussled over the contention that Senator Obama is a Muslim.  The Republicans have intimated that he is a Muslim while simultaneously decrying one of his Christian ministers.  That would seem to be an oxymoron and too ludicrous to merit serious consideration, but imagine, if you will, that on the Friday before the election the Republican handlers “suddenly” discover the topic of taqiya, which is a form of lying about one’s religious belief if there is danger, and that can cover danger to one’s self or to Muslims in general.

This columnist in no way claims to be fully informed about the topic and some statements on this topic may not be accurate because accurate infromation was elusive.  The fact that an afternoon of research at the Santa Monica Public Library was insufficient and produced a minimum of information only indicates that there is a great danger that the topic can be easily manipulated and misinterpreted.

The Republicans can, since they have no qualms about half-truths, spin, and flat out material that will not pass a fact checker’s inspection, take the topic of taqiya and present it, on the last Friday before the election, to the willing shills in the mainstream media as a “check mate” revelation even if it is actually a bogus item that deserves a referee’s flag on the play.

Added to that the fact that it is extremely difficult in debate to prove a negative, a sudden emphasis on taqiya by the Republicans on the last Friday before the election, would leave Senator Obama and his advisors scrambling to prove the negative while simultaneously countering the destructive effect on the Obama campaign that would accompany the introduction of taqiya as the October surprise.

A book on effective courtroom argumentation suggested that predicting what the other side will say and immediately refuting it is a means of eliminating the “surprise” effect from the topic.  (A sort of “preemptive strike as it were.)  Such a defensive move would give Senator Obama the chance to lump it in with the previous negative attacks from the McCain camp and could thus be reduced to the “at this point my opponent would say anything to try to gain an advantage” dirty trick, which doesn’t seem to be playing well with the voters this year.

Could it be that after lies about Iraq being allied with al Qaeda, bogus promises to get Osama, lies about WMD’s, and numerous other instances of disingenuous statements from President Bush and assorted other Republicans, that if Senator Obama presented it as “one more lie you can expect,” it would then put any efforts to present the topic of taqiya in the position of having to prove a negative (i.e. that it isn’t yet one more lie from Republican), because Americans have grown to expect B. S. from Republicans?

One of the challenges that any columnist faces during this election season is the ability to present some new idea or concept in a tsunami of “me too!” wolf pack commentary that leads to massive amounts of echoes about things like “Wall Street’s Worst Week Ever” and Troopergate. 

Journalists for the mainstream media have been browbeaten into withholding opinions and predictions.  Pundits for major media outlets have fallen into the trap of following the herd.  Bloggers have speculated that President Bush might invoke some crises as the reason for declaring martial law and suspending the elections, but there doesn’t seem to be much heads-up material about the October Surprise.

This column is pure speculation based on some reading and research.  Predictions about Native Dancer winning the Kentucky Derby were wildly inaccurate and so we would advise loyal readers to (like an astrological forecast) accept this column for its entertainment value and not make any wagers based on what you’ve just read.

To do your own fact checking perhaps a good starting point would be this link:

Sir Richard Francis Burton has said:  “Broke is a temporary condition, poor is a state of mind.”

“<a href=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pLB15kBvn_c>Ahab the Arab</a>” (who’d look for a white whale in the desert?) is this week’s “outro” song, selected by the disk jockey, and we’ll caravan out of here.  Have a hookah of a week.



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